Am I too late to invest

Lately, whenever I’m out in the community (which typically means Wegmans, Aldi's, or Home Depot), meeting with local business owners, or grabbing coffee with couples planning their retirement, the exact same question keeps popping up: “Are we too late?”

With everything going on in the world, people are anxious, worried, excited, sitting back smiling while they read over their statements, or kicking themselves for not jumping in at the right time. They look at the market levels, momentum, and worry we're in the late ninth inning, just waiting for the wheels to fall off. Makes sense if you justify that the market understands calendars, beginning, and ending of cycles. Markets don't know how to tell time or the date. The talking heads on TV love feeding into that anxiety, dropping buzzwords about recessions and economic cliffs. Time and time again, I talk about headlines selling the news. It gets boring to report good things. It doesn't get a rise out of people and doesn't attract attention.

But if you know me, you know we don’t manage wealth based on media vibes, analysts' viewpoints, the shake of a magic eight ball, or emotional headlines. Boy, would that be a mistake. I can hear my past conversations with clients about getting the event right and predicting market direction wrong or vice versa. That's precisely why we don't manage money that way. We look at the underlying plumbing of the economy. And when you look at the hard data right now, I don't see an economy that’s tired or running out of gas. You know the feeling when you start to see the fatigue of your youth player written all over their face. The inevitable is about to happen. That's NOT at all what I see here. In fact, I am firmly convinced that we are only in the early half of a powerful new growth phase. How can that be, you might ask, and that's a valid question.

Let's look past the noise and break down the real fundamental momentum driving this market, straight from the data.

Too late to Invest? The Productivity Miracle: Why We Have Massive Runway Left

If we were late in the game, you would see corporate efficiency stalling out and margins getting crushed. That's not what I see at all. Instead, we are witnessing a massive structural transformation.

American businesses aren’t just sitting on their hands; they are executing an out-of-the-box playbook to beat inflation. Yes, it's true. Corporate spending on productivity-enhancing equipment, artificial intelligence, and intellectual property is absolutely surging. The hope is that big spending on these aspects of business will result in a massive increase in productivity. Business spending on high-tech, transit, and aerospace infrastructure is moving so fast that it’s adding a massive 0.5 to 0.8 percentage points directly to our headline GDP growth.  

Look at where the real money is moving year-over-year:

• Transit equipment production: up an incredible 10.4%.  

• Information-processing and tech equipment: up 8.7%.  

• Defense and space equipment: up 7.7%.  

Here is the kicker: Nonfarm productivity is projected to skyrocket from a modest 0.3% in Q1 of this year to a jaw-dropping 4.7% by Q3. I'm no detective, but to put that into economic terms, a productivity boom like this is a classic early-stage driver. Early, but how? It allows companies to produce more, generate higher revenue, and protect their earnings without being forced to spike prices. Pretty sure consumers couldn't stomach that right now with the costs of goods and services through the roof. Spiking prices above where they are right now would be a bad thing for us all. This isn't a late-stage bubble; it's a foundation being built for the next decade of growth.  

Earnings Expectations are Accelerating, Not Decelerating

When an economy is heading into the late innings, corporate profits start to roll over and lose steam. But when you look at the broad expectations for the rest of the year, the numbers tell an entirely different story.

Nominal GDP—which tracks the actual total dollar volume moving through the economy—is forecasted to accelerate to just under 6% for the full year of 2026, up from 5.0% last year. Let that sink in - better expectations than last year. The economy is moving faster this year than it did in 2025. Last year was a rewarding year for most, and these years seem to be pacing for a better outcome.   

Moving on, corporate profits after taxes are sitting at a very healthy full-year projection of 6.7% growth, backed by a powerful 10.4% year-over-year surge in the first quarter alone.😲 When corporate earnings are expanding at this pace, it gives companies the capital they need to keep investing in their own businesses, which keeps the broader economic engine humming smoothly.

Why a 4.6% Unemployment Rate is Great News

Let's talk about the job market, because this is where the bears get it completely wrong. The forecasts show the unemployment rate ticking up slightly to 4.6% by the end of the year. On the surface, the cynics want you to think that means layoffs are coming, but I beg to differ. I think the workforce will change and adapt to a ton of factors like the implementation of tech, software, and AI. It means doing less of the mundane chores that we all hate and more of the delegation of tasks via technology. It brings back memories of my eighth-grade tech teacher, who beat it into my memory that companies will strive to make things easier, cheaper, and faster. Thanks, Mr. Smith!

But if you read the actual data, corporate America is currently resting in a cozy place that sits in a highly stable "low-hiring, low-firing, low-quits" equilibrium. Companies aren't shedding workers. Most of my client base is not worried about their job or the jobs of their colleagues. Layoffs remain completely restrained and seem to be off the table for the time being. 

So why is the unemployment rate edging up? Bear with me for a minute because it might seem like the math ain't math'n, but hear me out while I give it my best to explain. Because millions of people who were sitting on the sidelines are feeling optimistic enough to step back into the labor force and start actively looking for jobs. By definition, when labor supply expands like this, those workers are counted as unemployed until they match with a position. The edging of numbers can be misleading because of how unemployment is categorized. This means we have a fresh, unlocked wave of labor entering the game to support steady quarterly payroll gains of 160,000. It gives the economy an extended runway to grow without overheating the labor market, which is great news for job seekers, companies, and investors.  

The Final Score

When you connect the dots—accelerating nominal GDP, a massive technology-driven productivity boom, rock-solid household net worth, and a highly stable job market—the conclusion is clear. We are not, and I repeat, we are NOT at the end of the cycle. I truly believe all the numbers are pointing towards our current state, sitting in the middle of a massive structural rotation where old, interest-rate-sensitive sectors are passing the torch to high-tech, infrastructure-heavy growth drivers.  

We don't measure our clients' success by the daily panic of Wall Street economists or political talking heads. Television, newspapers, and magazines can tell a scary We measure it by a proven track record of helping local families and business owners build real, out-of-the-box game plans for their saving, budgeting, protection, and retirement income.

The economic foundation under us is strong. The game is far from over—in fact, the most profitable innings for long-term, disciplined investors are likely right in front of us.

Are you positioned to ride this next wave of growth, or is your portfolio still stuck playing defense based on yesterday's fears? Am I too late to invest might be a question you have, but the data shared in this post tells us a different story. Let’s grab some time to audit your strategy and ensure your wealth plan is built to win.

Everyone wants to offer advice. We hope you have the right person—a trusted partner to guide you on your path to achieving your goals. If you're feeling uncertain about how the current political and economic landscape is impacting your portfolio, reach out to us at Monarch Wealth Management. Let's schedule a consultation to ensure your wealth strategy is built to weather the storm.

Don't forget that you'll need a smart way to save, invest, and grow so you can enjoy all your hard work and the fruits of your labor. Make a conscious investment in yourself and watch some tips from my PennyWise Financial Podcast, where I discuss a lot of the topics in this blog post.

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